aluminium demand supply

All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. Many forms of alloy are made by blending in … China will import alloyed aluminium ingots (produced from secondary aluminium) from Europe and elsewhere instead of scrap and may increase exports of semi-finished aluminium products, at higher value and prices than alloyed ingots, while reducing the same (conversion) business in Europe and elsewhere. All future automobiles will need to satisfy stringent emission standards and the best way to do it with exciting technologies is toreduce their weight. China’s gross domestic product growth slowed to 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, its weakest pace in almost three decades. Explore historical market data straight from the source to help refine your trading strategies. For aluminum prices, industrial demand is what counts. The September daily rate was the highest since June. Alcoa took a similarly pessimistic view. Industrial activity is expected to have shrunk for the sixth month in October, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting hardly any relief from slowing global demand and the trade war. Disclaimer  |  Privacy Policy  |  Cookie Policy  |  Terms of Use  |  Data Terms of Use  |  Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement  |  Report a Security Concern. The global market is due to flip into a surplus of 304,000 tonnes next year from a deficit of 658,500 tonnes in 2019, according to the consensus numbers. Aluminium demand, however, drives alumina and bauxite growth – medium to long term demand … According to Fastmarkets, the aluminium 6063 extrusion billet premium, delivered Midwest US, fell to 7-9 cents per lb ($ 154.3/t – $198.4/t), down by half a cent from the previously assessed range of 7.5-9.5 cents per lb on October 11. While Chinese demand for aluminium alloy is booming, domestic supply has struggled to keep pace. The bottom line is that there is enough aluminium whenever there is need for it. Despite many contradictory estimates and forecasts, the consensus among all major producers is that global aluminium demand growth will be flat (around zero) this year. China’s estimated primary aluminium production stood at 2.878 million tonnes in September, a decline of 3.2% y/y, IAI data further showed. Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. Demand from flat steel users has been particularly strong - for example, refrigerator production rose by 25.8% year-on-year. The Aluminium Futures (CFD Derived) rose despite the global uncertainties amid supply shortfall; the prices of Aluminium Futures surged from the level of US$1749.75 (Day’s low on 21st June 2019) to the present high of US$1803.25 (as on 25th June 2019 2:10 PM AEST). If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. Parallel with new types of alloys new techniques of material shaping/designing are established and used. Any slowdown in China could create a global supply glut that could depress prices, especially in Europe and Japan. The producers had to supply aluminium to LME warehouses as they could not reduce the volumes of metal production fast enough after the decline in demand. The slowdown in key sectors such as the European car industry is putting the aluminum industry on course for annual demand growth of 1% to 2% this year, according to Wood Mackenzie. But the average is deceptive, because sharp gains for nickel of over 50% cover the fact that half of the metals are in the red, with losses of up to 15%. Analysts expect cash LME aluminium to average US$ 1814 a tonne in 2020, up 6% from the current price. In the first nine months of 2019, China produced 26.37 million tonnes of aluminium, up 1.1% from a year earlier. Aluminium prices will see only modest growth in 2020 as the market moves into surplus, hit by a combination of a slowing demand growth and continued gains in supply. Demand for aluminium in North America improved by 5.6% in comparison with 2014. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in July contracts eased by 25 paise, or 0.18 per cent, to Rs 136.50 per kg in a business turnover of 810 lots. The latest economic parameters in the EU and the US also indicate slowing growth. The reason why China matters so much to aluminum is simple. Global mining production in 2017 was close to 60,000 metric tons, more than triple what the world was mining in 1994 (Figure 5). All things considered, this is the real reason why primary aluminium demand fell so quickly. As well as a five-year view, we also provide a 25-year forecast for aluminium supply, demand and prices. The dispute over tariffs is continuing to impact markets across several asset classes, from equities to agriculture and metals. The aluminium industry is facing a huge supply glut that could trigger thousands of jobs losses as the coronavirus pandemic forces key customers to halt production. The latest move brings the billet premium to an all-time low. CME Group is the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace. However, should the U.S. apply tariffs to a wider set of goods or increase the tariffs from 10% to 25%, the economic impact on China will start to be measurable. 2021 PREVIEW: Demand growth to support SHFE aluminium price in H1 but surplus weighs Understand how the bond market moved back to its normal trading range, despite historic levels of volatility. Aluminum prices in the U.S. are on the rise and could lead to reduced consumption and a glut in Europe and Asia. Roughly half of worldwide semi-finished aluminum products in 2019 were consumed by the transport and construction industries, each corresponding to approximately a quarter of the total demand. The latter remains the main contributor to depressed markets and metal prices. Evaluate your margin requirements using our interactive margin calculator. Among key findings for the North American industry, the report found that in 2015: Demand for aluminum (producer net shipments and imports) increased by eight-tenths of one percent to 25.7 billion pounds. Despite some encouraging signs, aluminium price has extended its weakness in October (4th quarter), trading in the range US$ 1696-1738/tonne. In the first half of 2015, global aluminium demand rose by 6.3% to 28.6 million tonnes as a result of stronger demand in North America and the EU. “Many hold the view that the western world is in a significant aluminium deficit, but we see a surplus,” Vazquez said, pointing to LME prices that have fallen by around 40% since April last year. ET While the points above speak to demand (or lack thereof) for aluminium, the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic is broad enough to impact supply as well. While tariffs have a direct impact upon regional pricing, especially in North America, they could also have indirect consequences for aluminum prices generally. more information Accept. The reason for this is a well – or otherwise – oversupplied market, slowing global growth and exhaustion from the prolonged US-China trade negotiations. If China slows further and, if it devalues its currency, aluminum prices could risk taking a major slide. In the July poll, analysts had expected a deficit of 88,000 tonnes next year. Social inventories of primary aluminium in China continued to fall, as consumption remained robust. The growing volume of recycled aluminum may help reduce the imbalance of supply and demand in the aluminum industry. In the Middle East, primary aluminium production increased by 4.35% year-on-year to 456,000 tonnes last month. Lightening of vehicles must b… Total exports of unwrought aluminum, including primary metal, alloy and semis, were 5.8 million tonnes last year, up 21 percent on 2017. Norsk Hydro predicts demand outside China will fall by 1-2%, meaning that global demand is likely to fall by 0.5%. The demand shock to companies dependent on aluminum cans is hard to overstate, according to Molson Coors. But output dropped 2.77% month-on-month. World demand for aluminum (primary and secondary/recycled) is projected to expand 5.8 percent per year through 2017 to 82.5 million metric tons. The pandemic brought on substantial growth in single-serving consumption of carbonated beverages. What’s more, a large part of stocks is being kept in unregistered (non-LME) warehouses, which means availability is still ample. So far, the U.S. has imposed only a 10% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese goods, too small to make much of a difference. The current aluminium price “is just high enough above cost of production” to allow smelters to launch or resume operations after shutdowns, AZ China’s Adkins said. In the Middle East, primary aluminium production increased by 4.35% year-on-yea… Press Release Europe Aluminum Market Demand and Supply, Production Analysis and Opportunity Assessment 2020 to 2025 Published: July 26, 2020 at 9:00 a.m. Any slowing in the Chinese economy will make it harder to absorb the vast amount of aluminum being mined each year. One of the conclusions of the LME Week (held between October 27 and November 1) is that a combination of weak macroeconomic data and an anticipated increase of global aluminium supplies is prompting expectations that more metal will be held in financing deals for long-term gain. Create a CMEGroup.com Account: More features, more insights. Chinese official GDP has an even stronger correlation with aluminum prices up to one year in advance, but official Chinese GDP has been unusually stable of late, showing between 6.5% and 7.0% growth in each quarter since early 2015. Over half of additional volume demand in 2017 will be accounted for by China. This is true of both China’s official GDP as well as a more volatile alternative measure called the Li Keqiang index, which measures growth in electricity consumption, rail freight volumes and outstanding bank loans (Figure 2). Shanghai aluminium prices are currently hovering around the 14,000 yuan ($1,980) a tonne mark often considered a break-even price for Chinese smelters, while spot aluminium premiums exceeded 100 yuan/t. Search our directory for a broker that fits your needs. Like copper, iron ore and other industrial metals, aluminum prices closely track Chinese economic growth. Within the BRIC economies, the growth of Indian demand has been a key contributor to growth. This would not necessarily have much of an impact on the U.S. premium for aluminum, but it could depress European and Japanese prices further should a global aluminum glut develop. The main downside risk to U.S. aluminum prices could be a sudden removal of tariffs. Get quick access to tools and premium content, or customize a portfolio and set alerts to follow the market. China consumes 40-50% of the global aluminum supply each year. Don't miss a single update from Aluminium Insider. View more reports from Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. Looking back at the main trends in the aluminum space in 2019, Wood Mackenzie Senior Analyst Ami Shivkar pointed to global primary aluminum demand, which was at its lowest level in a … The views in this report reflect solely those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. Impact on China domestic supply/demand of the new scrap law and the operational challenges of the law to primary and secondary aluminium … The premium for aluminium billets in Europe is holding onto the US$ 300 per tonne level, while in the United States, it fell to a record low on October 25, reflecting billet producers’ continued struggle to sell spot billets to extruders. Production of primary aluminium stood at 4.109 million tonnes in the first nine months of this year. It is essential to address a situation like Coronavirus in the present study. Access real-time data, charts, analytics and news from anywhere at anytime. At the same time, there are no reliable and accurate statistics on how much new scrap goes back into the production process over closed-loop schemes, or how much old scrap has replaced orders of primary aluminium. Understand how CME Group can help you navigate new initial margin regulatory and reporting requirements. Material demand and supply are broadly linked to energy, water, and climate change. Production cuts in China and falling inventories indicating market deficits and seasonally higher demand towards the end of the year, did not manage to boost LME prices. “The story for 2020 is likely to be about the pace at which smelter cuts emerge to balance demand trends.”. He is responsible for generating economic analysis on global financial markets by identifying emerging trends, evaluating economic factors and forecasting their impact on CME Group and the company’s business strategy, and upon those who trade in its various markets. As such, when it comes to aluminum, we would be inclined to pay more attention to the Li Keqiang measure of growth than to official Chinese GDP. Chinese demand will be critical for the future direction of aluminum prices globally. In the long term, underlying demand-supply dynamics tend to impact metal prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium price will maintain its upward momentum in the first half of 2021 due to strong demand before trending gradually lower in the second half of the year on increased supply, market participants and analysts told Fastmarkets. Investors don’t seem to think that the Administration is likely to change its tariff policy soon. World primary aluminium production fell in September to 5.163 million tonnes, down 2.6% year-on-year and 3.12% on the month, according to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). U.S. tariffs have raised U.S. aluminum prices but may be lowering prices elsewhere. "We sold 300 million more cans of beer in the first nine months of 2020 than we did in the same period in 2019 in the United States alone. SMM data showed that stocks across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, decreased to 859,000 tonnes as of October 28. © 2020 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved. Casting Alloy Aluminum Wheel Market Value Share, Supply Demand, share and Value Chain 2020-2027 December 10, 2020 sagar The global Casting Alloy Aluminum Wheel market is anticipated to rise at a considerable rate during the forecast period, between 2020 to 2027. Chinese demand will be critical for the future direction of aluminum prices globally. Learn why traders use futures, how to trade futures and what steps you should take to get started. Australian mineral exploration firm Lindian Resources Limited obtained the Guinean government’s sign-off to take title to 61 percent of the... Bosnian aluminium smelter Aluminij d.d. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Adkins also said this had been partly offset by the restart of China Zhongwang Holdings’ smelter in the north eastern province of Liaoning and a capacity addition by Xinfa in Guangxi in China’s south. After remaining elevated, in the range of $1,850 per metric ton to $1,950 per metric ton, aluminum prices decreased in the second half of 2019, to reach close to … Since the tariff went into effect on June 1, forward-pricing has been stable, indicating that few investors anticipate an end to the tariff policy in the short term (Figure 1). Sign up to our weekly newsletter! Hear from active traders about their experience adding CME Group futures and options on futures to their portfolio. Production amounted to 47.549 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2019, dropping 0.99% from 48.023 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2018. Production amounted to 47.549 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2019, dropping 0.99% from 48.023 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2018. U.S. aluminum prices soared between January and April in anticipation of the Administration’s 10% import tariff. Our aluminium market analysis focuses on supply and demand fundamentals, price dynamics and forecasts for the entire value chain, including upstream and downstream markets. The country is also a significant aluminum producer and ran a large trade surplus of of aluminum in 2012. World primary aluminium production fell in September to 5.163 million tonnes, down 2.6% year-on-year and 3.12% on the month, according to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). “With primary aluminum demand expected to fall 13% in the U.S. in 2020, a response from one of the major producers was what the market needed,” said Doug Hilderhoff, an analyst at CRU Group. Compared to earlier polls, analysts significantly lowered their forecasts for the average aluminium price next year. Other than nickel and lead, base metal prices have been trading lower this year, with aluminium the second worst performer, and tin last. Steel production also increased in an annual comparison but, despite this, inventories at warehouses have been steadily going down since early October, indicating strong demand through the whole of the supply chain, although stocks increased slightly in late … The Chinese economy, the world’s second largest after the United States, is already beginning to slow under the burden of high debt levels and collapsing emerging market currencies (Figure 4). Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement, By Aluminium and other base metals prices are expected to be capped next year as weak economic growth weighs on the market, the latest Reuters poll showed (Oct. 28). Protect your portfolio with Metals futures and options. Various aluminium alloys, all kinds and generations of advanced high strength steels, then magnesium, composite materials (carbon fiber) and various plastic materials are the main to be used in automobiles to achieve that goal. “The current demand downturn has the misfortune of being timed with the start of the strongest period for ex-China supply growth since the late 1990s,” said analyst Nicholas Snowdon at Deutsche Bank in London. China churned out 2.90 million tonnes of the metal last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said, down 2.5% from 2.973 million tonnes in August. Mostar signed a five-year deal this week with British-Swiss firm Glencore plc for the supply... Russian Federation aluminium giant UC Rusal announced yesterday that it has received an A- rating in its first-ever assessment by... Base metals prices reacted positively to the progress registered in the latest round of US – China trade talks in mid-October, but the markets remained cautious about the prospects for a final agreement. The aluminium market is oversupplied despite many people forecasting a deficit, consultancy Harbor Aluminum’s managing director Jorge Vazquez told delegates at the LME Week seminar. There is a growing tendency by major aluminium processors to use higher amounts of recycled aluminium for making their products. Prior to the tariffs, U.S. prices were about 10% higher than the global average. He is also one of CME Group’s spokespeople on global economic, financial and geopolitical conditions. It appears that the U.S. tariff will reduce the quantity of aluminum used in the United States, resulting in a small but measurable supply glut in Europe and Asia. Erik Norland. This apparent stability might reflect the growing diversification of the Chinese economy into services but nevertheless we think that it understates the true degree of volatility in China’s industrial sector. Aluminium is a widely used metal and one of the most energy intensive industries, and therefore it has been included in most energy models and scenarios. The main downside risk to U.S. aluminum prices could be a sudden removal of tariffs. The Li Keqiang index correlates aluminum prices at between 0.5 and 0.6 up to five quarters in advance (Figure 3). According to information from customs authorities, China exported 4.37 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and semi-aluminium products in the first nine months of the year – 2.8% more than in the previous year. Per Paul Adkins, managing director of AZ China, the Xinfa and Hongqiao incidents took about 1,300 tonnes a day from the market. Aluminum isn’t an exception. Primary production decreased 2.2 percent from 2014 to 9.8 billion pounds. Demand for automotive vehicles, which are increasingly aluminum intensive, power transmission investment, housing development and electrical appliances create aluminum demand. Stream live futures and options market data directly from CME Group. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. Any slowdown in China could create a global supply glut that could depress prices, especially in Europe and Japan. If the imposing of U.S. tariffs on China slows its economic growth or causes the country to devalue its currency, it could depress aluminum prices around the world. For instance, reports on mining operations 4 in India have indicated that despite relevant businesses being deemed “essential” (and thus allowed to remain open during lockdowns), activity is slowing down significantly. 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